Research book · Illustrative
Worked examples of how the desk writes ideas—economics, conviction, kill switches, and sizing posture. Not live trade tickets; educational underwriting samples.
| Ticker-style ID | Idea | Action | Score | Cycle ROI | Margin | Capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PET-MOD-01 | Modular pet travel system | BUY | 86 | 62% | 24% | $48k |
| HOME-PREP-02 | Pro kitchen prep tool | BUY | 81 | 54% | 21% | $32k |
| SUP-REF-03 | B2B consumable refill pack | WATCH | 72 | 48% | 19% | $22k |
| OUT-SEA-04 | Seasonal outdoor accessory | HOLD | 64 | 41% | 16% | $65k |
| BEA-CLN-05 | Generic beauty device clone | AVOID | 38 | 12% | 7% | $0 |
Setup: Fragmented pet travel accessories; weak bundling among top listings. Edge: Modular system raises AOV and supports content-led differentiation. Economics (base): ~$12 landed, ~$35 ASP, mid-teens ACOS path to low-teens with organic mix. Kill switches: Contribution <$6/unit after ads; tariff stack >+12% COGS without price power. Sizing: $40–50k first wave after pilot sell-through confirmation.
Setup: Narrow professional niche with willingness to pay; mass listings under-serve durability. Edge: Spec-led product + pro social proof; less CPC war than broad “gadget” keywords. Economics: Higher ASP supports fees; returns risk managed via QC and packaging. Kill switches: Review velocity stall past month 4; copycat flood from same factory map. Sizing: $25–35k; protect margin with controlled promo, not perpetual coupons.
Setup: Repeat purchase economics are attractive if subscribe/attach works. Open questions: Customer acquisition cost for first unit; whether Amazon sub programs or off-Amazon retention is required. Why not BUY yet: Base clears hurdles only if repeat rate hits assumptions; we want 90 days of cohort data on a pilot. Next step: Small PO, measure reorder and organic share before scaling capital.
Setup: Strong peak demand, weak off-season liquidity. Problem: Capital intensity + storage risk; miss the window and you fund the warehouse. Posture: Do not initiate new capital. Existing exposure should prioritize sell-through and avoid deep pre-buys without firm demand signals. Revisit: Only with pre-orders, tighter lead times, or a non-seasonal attach product.
Rejected thesis: Category heat ≠ investable structure. Review walls and CPC intensity consume contribution. Lesson for the book: Naive gross margin is the most expensive lie in Amazon product selection. Capital: $0. Time better spent on demand-durable, less paid-dependent structures.
Read theses as templates. Rebuild the unit economics in the capital model with your real quotes and fee tiers. Score with the methodology. If you cannot write a kill switch, you do not understand the risk—and you should not size up.
Research disclaimer: All theses are illustrative educational examples. They are not recommendations to buy or sell any product, brand, or security. Past or hypothetical performance is not indicative of future results. Big Sky ROI, LLC · 30 N Gould St, Suite R, Sheridan, WY 82801.